6/11/08

(7,500 words) Baseball and Ethanol

The Big Lie

By Jim Plautz

It started a year ago, four thousand miles away in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Prince Fahd, a cousin of King Abdullah listened to the proposal and was interested. This idea fit nicely into OPEC’s strategy to maintain the world’s dependence on oil. He knew the anti-ethanol sentiment the Saudis were funding would only last so long. In 10 years oil would be competing with coal, methane and ethanol made from algae, woodchips and switchgrass. A bold plan was devised to slow down the Americans. This plan was ingenious; not only would it destroy the American ethanol industry; it would destroy the American’s love affair with baseball, their national pastime.

"Have you chosen a team?" the Prince asked.

"Yes, the team in Tampa, Florida."

"Why not somewhere in the Midwest where ethanol is made?"

"Have you been to Minnesota in winter?"

"No, but I wasn’t going to lead this project," the Prince said with a smile. "Tell me why you chose Tampa."

"The Tampa baseball team owners have invested in an ethanol plant being built at the Port of Tampa which will be the first plant to produce ethanol from either corn or sugar. If successful, the ethanol industry could double their production overnight."

The Prince recognized the danger. "We can’t allow that plant to be successful."

"Do you have a plan?"

"Yes; we will undermine the American’s love of baseball and blame it on ethanol."

"I like it – make it happen."

The Tampa Devil Rays were the doormats of the American league since their inception in 1998, finishing last in the American League East Division every year except 2004 when they erupted to a 70-91 record and a fourth place finish. Their fans, what few of them there were, hoped the Devil Rays had turned the corner. Despite a cadre of good, young players, these hopes were quickly dashed when they lost 95, 101 and 96 games from 2005 -2007.

The future looked bleak until a confluence of seemingly small events brought everything together in 2008. A bunch of young Wall Street whiz kids bought the team and fans were apprehensive at their seemingly lack of baseball experience. They made cosmetic changes and said all the right things, but the Tampa fans had heard it all before. Uniforms were changed and the team dropped the Devil out of their name. Cosmetic upgrades were made to Tropicana stadium, but everyone realized only a demolition team and a new stadium would make this a major league park. Free parking was offered to anyone coming to the game, but few fans took advantage. The outlook for 2008 was bleak as owners hoped for a 500 baseball team, which would be a 24 game improvement over 2007. Very few fans shared their optimism.

On June 10, 2008, the Tampa Rays trailed the Red Sox by a one game and were seven games ahead of the Yankees. They were 12 games over 500. Could it last? Could a team bounce from 96 losses one year to an American League pennant the next? Sportswriters debated the Rays future.

John Kruk pointed out that the Rays were in first place despite mediocre hitting. "If Crawford and Pena start hitting the way they can, the Rays are for real."

ESPN analyst Joe Morgan agreed. "They have been winning with great pitching and solid defense. Their new shortstop has really solidified the infield and the rookie, Upton, covers a lot of ground in centerfield."

"Starting pitching is the key", Kruk interrupted. "They have five starting pitchers that throw over 90 mph. I don’t see them wilting down the stretch. The only question mark is their relief pitching. They might try to pick up another relief pitcher for the stretch run."

"They also might want to pick up another hitter. I tell you, Barry or Sammy might be the difference."

Behind the scenes, the Rays were facing a severe financial crunch. The Rays were virtually tied for first place, but they were last in attendance. Seemingly unrelated to baseball, team owners were seeing their personal fortunes disappear overnight. Many had made their money with private equity firms on Wall Street and still held substantial positions with many companies. They watched as virtually all of their investments went bad. Every company where they held an equity position or owned stock suffered a blow. An advertising firm lost two major accounts; a bank holding company lost several key investors and was being audited; a crane collapsed on a large construction job in New York; you name it and it happened. In two months the value of their portfolios was cut in half. Like the old Devil Rays, they seemed snake bit.

Only their ethanol investment was making money. Located across the Bay from the site of the proposed waterfront stadium, their initial $10M equity investment was successful beyond expectations. They were 60% owners of the first "flex plant" in the United States, capable of making ethanol from either corn or sugar. Capacity was expanded to 100 mgpy and the owners were pocketing almost $10M a month. This was all that was keeping them afloat.

I was 20% owner of the ethanol plant along with Donald "James" McCrabb who also owned 20%. McCrabb had engineered and built this revolutionary system. His son, Todd, managed the plant and was responsible for day to day operations. Todd had requested an emergency meeting.

"Todd, what’s going on, any problems?"

"Afraid so, Jim; the cost of sugar has doubled almost overnight. Raw sugar is up to $300 a ton, if we were lucky enough to get any."

"What happened?"

"Our sources say there is someone buying up all the sugar on the market and paying premium prices. Whoever is behind this is well financed; it must be costing them hundreds of millions of dollars."

"China?" I asked, referring to the biggest world importer.

"No, it’s not China. The worst part is that even if we could purchase sugar, there are no container ships available. Our only source of sugar is domestic or Mexico, but even Mexico prices have tripled."

"What’s happening with corn prices?" I asked hopefully, although something told me the news would not be good.

"Best case, $7.50 a bushel – worst case, $9.00 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Farmers are planting soybeans because of all the rain."

I got more bad news when I got home and saw a news report that OPEC had announced they are doubling oil production. The futures market for oil had already dropped 40% to $85 per barrel. This was not good news for the ethanol industry, where prices followed oil, not the cost of corn or sugar.

"Why is this happening?" I wondered as a poured myself a glass of Wild Turkey. Through a series of coincidences, our profit margins had disappeared overnight, and I didn’t believe in coincidences. I decided to call the owner’s representative and give him the bad news.

"Aaron, I’m glad I caught you. Do you have a minute?"

"If you are going to tell me about OPEC oil prices, I’ve already seen it. I assume this will cut into our profits."

I gave him the bad news.

"Are you telling me that we have gone from a $120M profit to a loss, overnight?" Aaron exclaimed. "Oh crap, this couldn’t have come at a worse time. We are being killed from all directions."

"What else is going on?" I probed, thinking of the series of coincidences that had happened already today. "At least the Rays are in first place," I said encouragingly.

"Yeah, but attendance is still down and my general manager says we need a couple more players if we want to hold off Boston. He is asking for $20M."

"What, who does he want? Ray Hobbs and who else?

"Very funny, but we got the next best thing to Hobbs. How does Barry Bonds hit you?"

Oh no, I thought, just when I was becoming a diehard Rays fan. "Don’t tell me, who is the pitcher?" I asked, already bracing myself for the answer.

"Eric Gagne from the Brewers," he replied. "Who did you think?" he asked with a laugh, knowing I had guessed Roger Clemens. "Gagne has six straight saves since he came off the disabled list in June."

"How much?" I asked again.

"$10 million apiece; we would need to pick up Gagne’s entire 2008 salary for just three months work. I told him no. Money was tight, even before our ethanol investment hit the tank. We can’t afford to do the deal."

I thought a moment before replying. "What if there was a way to get your two players and take the pressure off your cash flow problems?"

"I’m listening; we are desperate. We need to do something unless our luck changes quickly."

The owners’ luck didn’t change. It was like they were snake bitten. The owners were losing money on every private investment. Fortunately, ethanol profitability picked up. We located three months supply of non edible domestic sugar that we purchased for nine cents a pound due to the energy provision in the 2007 farm bill allowing sugar refineries to sell excess sugar to energy companies rather than return the sugar to the Department of Agriculture. The refineries were reimbursed the difference between the subsidized price and price we paid. McCrabb also found a way to use High Test Molasses rather than raw sugar and the cost of sugar dropped to six cents a pound.

"Jim, I’m not sure what we would be doing without the money from ethanol, but to tell you the truth, it’s not nearly enough. Tomorrow we are going to lay off sixty employees in the Ray’s organization including several scouts that have been with us since we started. We can’t make payroll at some of our companies and we have borrowed as much as we can."

"I gather things are still not going well in your business portfolio?"

"Things are getting worse, Jim. Let’s go forward with the idea you proposed."

Two weeks later the Rays announced the acquisition of Barry Bonds and Eric Gagne.

Bonds and Gagne made all the difference and by September the Rays led Boston by ten games when strange things began to happen. The Rays were in Boston for a three game series and the Rays were leading in the opener, 5-4 with two on and two out in the ninth. Gagne induced Ortiz to hit an easy fly ball into left field and most fans were headed for the exits when Crawford dropped the ball. The tying and winning runs scored as Crawford looked at his glove for an explanation. There was none. Major league players don’t muff easy fly balls with two outs in the ninth. The Rays won game two, 7-1, but the next night Wheeler, the closer before Gagne was obtained, blew a tremendous pitching performance by Scott Kazmir. He walked the first three batters in the ninth before giving up a triple to tie the score. The winning run scored on a wild pitch. Tampa fans wondered why the manager didn’t use Gagne or allow Kazmir to finish the game. The Rays did not look like a championship team as they headed to Baltimore.

The cable TV analysts couldn’t wait to jump ship.

"I told you it couldn’t last; it was just a matter of time."

"They have no winning tradition in Tampa, and they are too young. Only Bonds and Gagne have ever been through a pennant race. This collapse was bound to happen."

The worst was yet to come. Monday was an off day, but the team was still rocked by bad news. It started as a rumor on a mlb.com blog before it appeared in a New York Times front page headline.

"Baseball Investigates Possible Betting Scandal"

That same day the Rays announced that Barry Bonds was traded to the Yankees in exchange for a AA pitching prospect and cash. Bonds was hitting .345 with an on base percentage of .455. The trade could only be attributed to the Ray’s financial woes.

"What’s going on in Tampa?" was the overriding theme of every cable talk show.

The following day the Commissioner of Baseball held a 1:00 PM news conference that was televised across the nation and overseas, by virtually every network; he dropped a bombshell.

"I regret to announce that baseball is assisting the FBI in looking into some unusual activities surrounding the Tampa Rays baseball team. That’s all I can tell you at this time."

"Commissioner, Commissioner," screamed the AP sportswriter. "There are rumors that the Rays’ owners have been betting against their team; do you deny this?"

"No comment, that’s all for today."

The media had their dirt and the next two weeks was a feeding frenzy. Every day there was a new headline that was more sensational than yesterdays.

"Owners order manager to throw games," the L.A. Times reported.

"Rays owners prepared to declare bankruptcy," claimed the NY Daily News, who had somehow come up with some startling details about their financial problems.

"Funds suspiciously show up in Rays owners’ personal accounts after loss to the Red Sox," ESPN reported, based upon an anonymous tip.

"Ethanol plant in Tampa draining Rays’ cash flow," a UPI story reported, citing anonymous sources.

"Another Black Sox scandal," was the theme of thousands of popular blogs throughout the country.

Meanwhile, the Rays lead in the American League East continued to dwindle. With three games remaining, the Red Sox were one back. The Yankees had won 12 straight and were two back. The Yankees needed to sweep their season ending three game series in Tampa and hope the Red Sox lost a game or two in Toronto.

The pressure on the Rays owners continued to mount as banks verified the transfer of $20M into the Rays’ operating accounts two day after the Red Sox series. "The $20M has nothing to do with gambling," Aaron responded in a televised news conference. "It was a private matter. I have ever bet on baseball."

"Then how do you explain the sudden influx of money immediately after the Red Sox series?" a reporter persisted. "Where did the money come from?"

"I’m not at liberty to say," Aaron replied quietly. "It is a private business decision that has nothing to do with gambling."

"Is it true the Rays are close to filing for bankruptcy?" a syndicated columnist shouted.

"There is no truth to that," Aaron replied shaking his head in disgust, as he left the podium.

An hour later I received a call from Aaron at work. "Jim, did you see the news conference? They are killing us. We need to make the announcement soon. The Commissioner is not happy with us."

"I understand, but I just talked to our friends and they are asking us to hold off for at least another week. They don’t want to take the risk of what might happen if this gets out. Hang in there."

"I’ll try, but we will be crucified tomorrow in the media. The cable talk shows are having a field day with the Black Sox comparison which obviously doesn’t sit well with the Commissioner."

"I’ll try to get our friends to hurry, but there isn’t too much we can do except wait. By the way, everything is going well at the ethanol plant. Our experiment using High Test Molasses was very successful."

"Excellent, does that mean the price will increase?" Aaron asked, only half joking.

"Let’s discuss this another time," I answered, realizing Aaron might be calling from a cell phone. "I’ll see you tonight after the game."

"Did you hear that?" the technician asked, but not waiting for an answer. "We need to get this to Abdul as soon as possible. It looks like those two are planning something big."

An hour later, Abdul and Muhammad listened to the last two minutes of the tape for the third time and came to the logical conclusion. "They’re planning to sell the ethanol plant."

"Will they get enough to solve their financial problems?" Muhammad asked.

"They own sixty percent equity in the only corn-sugar flex fuel plant in the United States that will earn over $125M this year, despite all we have done to stop them. Yes, selling the plant would be enough to make them solvent again."

"We can’t let that happen."

"No we can’t. It looks like we have two weeks to stop them. I’ll call the Prince."

The Rays did their job, sweeping the Yankees three in a row behind fantastic starting pitching combined with solid defense and timely hitting. The Rays wrapped it up on Sunday 6-2 behind seven strong innings from much maligned, Edward Jackson. It was only fitting that Jackson, who only last year was 5-15 with the last-place Rays, earned the victory that gave the Rays their first American League East championship.

Tampa celebrated, but the mood was somber in the owners box. New allegations surfaced that the FBI had discovered a direct link between a Vegas bookie and the Rays owners. Under pressure, the bookie reportedly had given the FBI an incriminating deposition. The story was page-one news as sports writers were overshadowed by the likes of Dan Rather, Larry King and Hannity and Colmes.

Baseball has no tolerance for gambling and gamblers, particularly if you bet on baseball; just ask Pete Rose. Although never convicted in a court of law, the greatest singles hitter and all time hits leader in baseball is barred from the Hall of Fame because the Commissioner believes he bet on baseball.

The Commissioner wanted to act immediately, but had two problems. Baseball’s attorneys advised them of their liability if he acted before the Rays were provided an opportunity to respond to the allegations. "Deny them due diligence," one attorney said, "and any judge in the country will grant them an injunction the next day."

"And if the allegations prove unfounded, baseball is in a world of hurt," another concurred.

"Okay, set up an open hearing for next Monday. We will get to the bottom of this once and for all."

The Commissioner’s bigger problem is what punishment to hand out. "Do I punish the team or just the owners? After all, even if the Rays were guilty of throwing a couple of games, they still won the pennant. Baseball fans would go nuts if we stripped the Rays of their title."

"Maybe not," an advisor offered. "You could make the case that the Rays wouldn’t have had the money to sign Bonds or Gagne without the money from gambling."

The Commissioner nodded in agreement.

The Rays kept up the pressure by sweeping the California Angels in the first round of the playoffs to set up a meeting with the winner of the Detroit – Boston series. Three days later the Red Sox edged the Tigers 5-4 in game seven to set up a showdown with the Rays to determine the American League Champion. Game one was scheduled for the same day that baseball’s open hearing into the Rays betting scandal got underway.

The next ten days were not easy on Aaron and his partners. They were vilified by every talk show and found guilty of crimes ranging from betting on baseball to beating the family dog. Monica Lewinsky had an easy ride in comparison. The criticism reached its zenith when a NY Times reported that the FBI had indisputable evidence that the owners were linked to organized crime. The FBI had no comment.

Two days before the hearing a Gallop poll showed that 75% of self described baseball fans believed the Rays owners guilty of betting on baseball and 88% of these people believed the owners should be sentenced to jail and banned from baseball for life.

"Aaron, how are you holding up?" I asked.

"Not too well. Today my older boy got into a fight and got the shit kicked out of him by three older boys. My daughter came home crying because the kids were calling her father a cheat and my wife was just uninvited to speak at a fund raiser. Other than that, everything’s fine."

"Well, for a change, I have some good news. Our friends finished their due diligence and are prepared to close Friday morning."

"Wow, that’s the best news I have heard in months. Can we announce the deal before the meeting?"

"Not yet, they don’t want to take the chance. I’ll call you as soon as the papers are signed and fax you a copy of the sales agreement. You might want to enter that into the record at the hearing."

"Do you think it will satisfy them?"

"It does explain where the $20M came from."

"Yes, but I still have no idea where the rest of the allegations are coming from. Someone must be making it up, but for the life of me, I don’t know why."

"Maybe I do," I replied. "This morning I spent two hours with FBI agents and they have a theory, but I can’t get into details. They are hoping to tie everything together by Friday."

"Whew, Friday looks like it will be a big day. I hope we can put all this behind us."

"And let’s hope your team beats the Red Sox," I added.

I went to bed Thursday evening with happy thoughts, not anticipating the fireworks that were about to occur. While I slept, a barge slowly rounded the bend in the channel and headed for wharf 37 which fronted our ethanol plant. The barge docked about forty yards from our two, five million gallon ethanol terminals and 200 yards from our plant. Barge traffic between our facility and the Hess oil terminal around the bend was normal. Hess purchased a good percentage of our ethanol and also supplied the gasoline we used to denature the ethanol to federal standards. But barge traffic at 2:00 AM was unusual as were the four passengers dressed in dark clothing. The plant operated continuously and had a normal 3^rd shift staff of nine employees, but it was pure luck that John and Jessie happened to be outside in our receiving terminal doing a physical inventory of sugar when the barge pulled up. They watched for a minute and it became obvious that something was wrong when two of the men split off and headed to the terminals.

"Jessie, call port security and get them here fast and then call 911. The number is posted in the break room. I’ll see if I can hold them off."

"Okay; I’ll warn the others after I make the calls," he said as he raced off.

"Gentlemen, may I help you?" John asked as he stepped out of the shadows. It was possible that this was all a big mistake.

"Oh, hi, you surprised me," one of the men answered, obviously startled by John’s presence. "We have a delivery of corn. Where should we put it?"

Now John was certain something was amiss as all corn came in by rail. "Are you sure you have the right location? This is a sugar plant - we don’t use corn in our ethanol," John lied.

"There must be some mistake," the man said walking closer and reaching into his coat.

John heard the sirens in the distance as 911 responded and saw the port security power boat coming around the bend. He just needed to delay these men a few more moments. "Hold it right there," John shouted. "This is the FBI and I order you to lie down on the ground."

The men froze for a few seconds before running for the barge. Seeing the two boats approaching and hearing the sirens coming closer, they realized they had nowhere to go. The leader made a decision.

"Blow it, Jacob," and moments later the Semtex exploded at the base of the first terminal.

My FBI friend, Chris Lewis, met me at the scene and brought me up to date. Other than asking how they got past security, which is akin to asking who left the barn door open, I realized that it could have been much, much worse. Other than a ruined terminal worth $10M and 5 million gallons of ethanol worth $12.5 million, we had escaped the worst of it.

Four hours later I called Aaron from the lender’s office. Neither of us had slept since I gave him the news at 3:00 AM. "Just as we expected, Aaron; the lender won’t close until our insurance company approves payment on the terminal and they look into our liability on the ethanol spill."

"Is that a problem?"

"No, I don’t think so. In a few days you won’t even know there was a spill. As you know, unlike oil, ethanol is edible and completely soluble in water. There will be a few happy fish, but that’s about it."

"Good; did they say when we can close?"

"Next Friday, if the insurance company cooperates, unless we run into unforeseen problems; like that could ever happen to us."

"And in the meantime, I just grin and bear it?" Aaron said ruefully.

"Good luck this morning," I said not envying what the Rays owners was about to go through in the nationally televised hearing.

I watched the hearings on NBC, one of seven network and cable stations carrying the hearings live. Aaron had barely sat down when Senator Smudgens from the House oversight committee asked an amazing sequence of questions.

"Do you and your partners own 60% of the ethanol plant on the Port of Tampa, across the Bay from the ballpark?"

"Yes we do,"

"I understand that there was an accident at the plant last night resulting in the destruction of one of your storage terminals and spillage of more than 5,000,000 gallons of ethanol into the Gulf of Mexico?"

"Accident? I would hardly characterize four terrorists attacking the plant armed with Semtex explosives as an accident, would you?" I winced as I watched Aaron break two cardinal rules of testifying; never get mad and never try to make the questioner look bad.

"Semantics aside, Mr. Logan, do you expect to obtain an insurance settlement in the neighborhood of $25 million dollars?"

Aaron was amazed that this insurance information was public knowledge so soon after the accident. I figured someone was listening to our cell phone conversations. He answered the question. "Yes, the plant has insurance."

"Is it further true that if the accident had destroyed the entire plant you would have collected more than $500 million?" The spectators in the courtroom gasped as the television cameras zoomed in on Aaron.

Aaron sat back in his chair, unable to believe what the Senator was implying. He should have brought an attorney. "I don’t know how the insurance company would value the plant, but I think $500M is a little high."

"Isn’t it true you are trying to sell the plant to cover losses from your bad Wall Street investments?"

"We have discussed the possibility of selling the plant."

"Is anything finalized?"

"No." I admired Aaron’s restraint and wished the lenders had given him permission to tell the whole story.

"Would a $500M insurance settlement have helped?" the Senator concluded.

Aaron lost his temper. "Senator, I can’t believe what you are implying. Four terrorists died last night and …"

"I have no further questions, Mr. Chairman."

"Damn it; let me finish."

"Please be silent, Mr. Logan, there will be no cursing in this hearing," the Commissioner stated as he pounded his gavel for emphasis and to quiet the spectators.

"With all due respect, Mr. Commissioner, I can’t believe you allow unsubstantiated allegations like we heard from the Senator and you take umbrage with my language. Is this a hearing or a kangaroo court?"

"Mr. Logan, please calm down or I will hold you in contempt. The allegations are not unsubstantiated. We have been told by reliable sources in the FBI that your ownership group is under investigation for possible insurance fraud."

Aaron sat back in his chair, mouth agape. It wasn’t a pretty sight. I had the same look, but I wasn’t on live television in front of millions of viewers. Aaron realized that any attempt to discuss the offer to purchase the ethanol plant would now fall on deaf ears and probably be interpreted as proof the Rays needed money. The insurance money was a sure thing.

"Let’s take a break and reconvene in 30 minutes. We have a lot more questions for Mr. Logan."

Thirty minutes later Aaron’s personal attorney asked for a one week continuance. The Commissioner of Baseball was not pleased, but from a legal aspect, he had no choice.

"Chris, what did the Commissioner mean when he said Aaron’s group was being investigated?" I asked, more than a little upset. "Why didn’t you tell me?"

"Jim, calm down. Nobody is investigating Aaron. I understand that someone from the Senator’s staff called and an agent told him we never rule anything out. That’s all there is to it. Aaron is not a suspect."

"It’s a damn witch hunt," I said in exasperation.

"Jim, watch your language or I will be forced to hold you in contempt."

I was about to tell my long-time friend Chris Lewis what she could do with her contempt, when I realized she was joking. "Got me," I admitted.

"Be patient, Jim. Tell Aaron off the record that we hope to wrap this up before Friday’s hearing."

The Rays won 6-1 Friday night, although Aaron and I did not attend the game. They won again Saturday night 8-3 and went to Boston Tuesday with a 2-0 lead in the best of seven series. The Rays success on the field was the Commissioner’s worst nightmare.

The ethanol plant reopened Monday. Our insurance company quickly agreed to a settlement of $5M to repair the terminal and to pay the full sales price of the 5M gallons of ethanol that was destroyed. Thursday morning Aaron received a check from the insurance company for $17,500,000 which cleared the way for Friday’s closing.

Friday’s closing was scheduled for 7:00 AM to make sure the purchase agreement was signed and Aaron could walk into the meeting with a check in hand. My group was purchasing Aaron’s 60% equity for $820M, approximately seven times earnings. We looked forward to the hearing.

Thursday night the Rays beat the Red Sox 3-2, and advanced to the World Series to face the Cubs or Phillies; the Cubs led three games to two. We rooted for the Cubs. It would be a dream series, one that baseball would be proud of and fans everywhere could embrace. The Tampa Rays, a team that lost 96 games just last year, and had never had a winning record, versus the Chicago Cubs, who had not won a World Series since 1908 – one hundred years ago.

Network TV carried the news, moments after the Rays victory. There was no warning. Nobody called to double-check their sources, give advance notice or to ask if there were any new developments. The FBI was scheduled to testify at the hearing, but nobody asked if they had information that would clear Aaron and the other owners. The Rays clinching win over the Red Sox apparently forced the Commissioner’s hand and he apparently felt obligated to make an announcement quickly.

Every media outlet picked up the story and despite the late hour, expert analysts were called in to assess the startling development. Friday morning newspapers claimed a new Roper Poll showed that 92% of baseball fans supported the Commissioner’s decision. Aaron’s children were kept home from school.

The Commissioner was furious that the story had been prematurely leaked and pointed an accusing finger at the Senator. "Did you do this?" he asked minutes before the hearing was scheduled to get underway.

"No, of course not, but what’s the difference? These owners are guilty as hell and 92% of the people agree."

"This isn’t polls, Senator, this is about protecting the reputation of baseball," the Commissioner shouted. "What if 92% of the people are wrong?"

"Oh come on, they are guilty as hell. Let’s get this over with."

Rap-rap-rap and the hearing got underway. "Mr. Logan, please take the stand and remember that you are still under oath. Before we start, I want to apologize for the premature release of the announcement to cancel the World Series. This decision is not final and will not be made until after this hearing." I’ll never know whether the Commissioner had been tipped off or was just protecting the game of baseball, but it was a very, very smart thing to do.

"Mr. Commissioner, may I have permission to make a brief statement?"

"Yes, so long as you keep it brief and on point."

"Mr. Commissioner, I hold an original, negotiable cashier’s check for $800,000,000 made out to me as representative of the ownership group that until today, owned 60% of the Port of Tampa ethanol plant," Aaron began, holding up the two foot by four foot check so that television cameras could zero in. There were gasps and murmurs from the spectators and a resigned look on the Commissioner’s face. He asked for silence.

"I would have had this check in hand last week if not for the damn accident at the plant," Aaron stated, looking directly at the Senator and Commissioner, almost begging to be admonished again for his salty language. The Commissioner is not a stupid person and knew when to keep quiet. Aaron continued. "I also have here a supporting sales contract that shows the price for our 60% equity interest totaled $820,000,000." Aaron held up an oversized copy of $20M check containing my signature. "As you all know from examining my bank records, the initial $20M was paid June 23, 2008." The Commissioner leaned back in resignation. It was time to eat crow and he knew it.

An aide whispered in the Senator’s ear and moments later the Senator requested a two-hour recess so he could review the new evidence.

The Commissioner gave the Senator a scathing look, but didn’t answer. He turned to Aaron; "please continue."

"Commissioner, I would like to give the remainder of my time to FBI Special Agent Chris Lewis who has headed up this investigation. I believe you will find her testimony very relevant."

"Ms. Lewis, take as much time as you need," the Commissioner ordered.

"Thank you Mister Commissioner. I’m going to describe a series of events that can only be understood within the context of power, greed and world politics. There is no other possible motive. Let me explain. The Rays’ owners have been targeted and subject to planted evidence and a well-financed campaign to destroy them financially."

"Can you prove this?"

"Yes, although it’s tough to prove a negative, we have compelling evidence. Let me summarize." Twenty minutes later Chris concluded her prepared testimony. "The FBI cannot ascertain with certainty why this was done or who was behind it, but we can prove that these events have occurred. In summary, the FBI sees no link of the Tampa Rays owners to gambling." Chris closed her notebook and waited for questions as the spectators sat in stunned silence. There were no questions.

The Commissioner wasted no time. "Mr. Logan, I apologize to you on behalf of this committee and baseball."

"Thank you, Commissioner. Does that mean what I hope it means for the Rays?"

"Yes, there will be a World Series. This meeting is adjourned."

Aaron was in tears as the spectators and committee members rose as one and applauded. His ordeal was finally over.

Saturday morning, the two Tampa newspapers reported the good news on the front page – they were the only newspapers to do so.

Saturday evening Aaron and a few other friends came over to my house to watch the Cubs beat Philadelphia. "Well, at least now we know who we’re playing," Aaron said as the Cubs celebrated their first World Series appearance in 63 years. "Do you think anyone will be rooting for us?"

"92% of baseball fans should be," one of the girls commented sarcastically, drawing laughs from everyone. Unfortunately, I bet that at least 50% of them still believed the lies. A page two retraction is never enough to undo the damage done by weeks of page one accusations.

"By the way, Chris, what do you think the motive was?" one of the Rays owners asked.

"Unofficially, we think it was all about the ethanol plant. OPEC is and a lot of international oil companies are threatened by the alternative fuels industry."

"But why this ethanol plant?" the man persisted. "There are plenty of other plants."

"Yes, but we are the first that is using sugar and a low temperature fermentation process," I interjected. "Our success means the ethanol industry can double its output almost overnight by simply adding sugar to corn ethanol fermentation tanks. This will put a big bite into oil profits. Some of the smaller OPEC nations would be seriously impacted."

"Is sugar ethanol the final solution?" Aaron’s wife asked.

"No, Peggy, but it’s is part of the short term answer; so is corn, wind, coal and methane. What it does is buy us time until we can start making ethanol from switchgrass, algae and other biomass materials."

"Well, I for one am glad this is over. Do you think the media will ever be this gullible? Could this happen again?"

"Watch," I said, as I inserted a CD of a recent cable news show.

"Are these people idiots or do they have an agenda?" Aaron asked as the CD concluded. "Do they really believe the bullshit they spout?"

"The Glenn Hawke show is just the tip of the iceberg," Chris offered. "It’s a product of 24 hour cable television where hosts are looking for TV sound bites and dirty laundry. Guests are trying to sell books and get invited back."

"Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em when they're down," Chris sang, picking a line from the Don Henley song – Dirty Laundry

"Kick 'em when they're up, kick 'em all around," Mary continued.

"We all know that crap is king, give us dirty laundry," Aaron finished with a laugh.

"Don Henley is wincing," I commented, "although there is a lot of truth in the lyrics."

"Is there any truth to their claim that corn ethanol has a negative energy value?" Joyce asked, getting us back to reality. "They can’t just make this up, can they?"

"The negative-energy claim started with a study done in 2002 by Pimentel and Patzek which has been disproved many, many times. Oil proponents keep alluding to it and people like Glenn Hawke and others accept it as fact."

"How many people still believe that ethanol has a negative energy content?" Aaron asked.

"92%?" Mary joked, drawing laughter from around the room.

"More than 60%," I stated seriously.

The consulting firm retained by the National Groceries Association also discussed the show. "Did everyone see the Glenn Hawke show last week?"

"Yes, it proves our campaign is working," concluded the lead consultant.

"I liked the part about ethanol causing a world food crisis," one of the marketing consultants offered. "No sense in making this just a US problem."

"We are on the right track," another offered. "We just have to keep drumming our point home – ethanol is the reason food prices are increasing."

"Okay, someone tell me what we are doing about the negative publicity we are getting from the Senator from Iowa finding out that we were hired by the Grocer’s Association to attack the ethanol industry?"

"That was a tough break and we are still trying to find out who leaked the story. All we can do is to ignore it and keep on point."

"I agree; the fact that we were hired to destroy the ethanol industry will blow over. I’m more concerned with pro-ethanol stories creeping in from credible news sources. The news agencies have been anti ethanol to this point."

"Yes, that article in the Business Journal was quite clear in pointing out that the high prices of oil are much more responsible than ethanol for high food costs. It even pointed out that without ethanol and other alternative fuels, oil prices would likely be 15% higher."

"Not to mention increased demand from third world countries and droughts in Australia and Mexico having an adverse impact on food prices."

"Did you see where a USDA undersecretary concluded that only 3% of the increase in world fuel prices is due to the increased demand for biofuel feedstocks?"

"It doesn’t help that the Grocer’s Association and oil companies are reporting record profits," another analyst offered.

"Okay, okay," the CEO concluded. "Let’s just stay on point and continue blaming everything on ethanol and restating the facts; that’s what we were hired to do. I’ll find out about squashing the pro-ethanol articles."

Four thousand miles away the Prince approved a new proposal to destroy the ethanol industry.

******************

Authors note:

This is a work of fiction, at least the part about the Rays owners betting on baseball. The part about the Tampa Rays having a real shot at the 2008 World Series is factual as are the many things the owners are doing to improve the franchise. As for getting Barry Bonds to help in the stretch run, I would rather finish second, and I’m sure the Brewers would pick up half of Gagne’s $10M salary if someone would take him off their hands.

The Port of Tampa ethanol plant is also fiction although $25M financing would make it happen. The financial projections for a corn and sugar flex plant are realistic. The campaign against ethanol is also real as are the quotes from a popular cable news show.

Am I exaggerating the campaign against ethanol and the gullibility of the media and talk show hosts? I don’t think so. Ask yourself; how many of you believed Monica Lewinsky before she produced a stained, blue dress. How effective was that smear campaign; 75%?

How many of us refused to trust our eyes and believed Roger Clemens claim he never took steroids, before Andy Petite confirmed much of Brian McNamee’s story; 80%?

How effective is the OPEC and oil company campaign against ethanol? How many people believe some of their lies and innuendos; 92%?

About the Author: Jim Plautz has published two books (about Golf and Tennis) and recently completed the third (Basketball). This new book will be about Baseball. All four books are told in the first person and have three components; business, terrorism and sports. 92% of readers have given the books favorable reviews.